I really do not have much desire to talk about politics with anyone outside my small circle of college friends that have (or are working on) a degree in political science. It is not that I don’t think they have valid points or are knowledgeable about the subject. I feel that I become just too damn judgmental when discussing anything within that field. I find that most everyone I talk to about the upcoming election, the “Arab spring” or state and local government see things in blacks and whites. It is probably not what they are actually saying…it is just what I hear. I cannot help that and I am sorry. I am a bit of an elitist when it comes to my field. I myself struggle when talking to a Literature major or a Economics major about those fields. I can hold quasi-intellectual conversations about almost everything but I feel only confident in political science.
However, one very specific topic within the realm of politics I find I can casually discuss with another individual is the upcoming Republican candidates chances of becoming President of the United States. The reason I think I can do this has nothing to do with my degree. I have confidence in my ability (however self-deluded that may be), to predict with some level of certainty, who stands a chance in actually getting elected. It probably is because I listen to the radio, read the newspaper, watch television very casually and voyeuristically follow social media outlets. I do not really dig deep into the issues. I simply listen to the mood of people that do dig deep. What the news stories of a given day, month, year are can give you a very good feel of the pulse of a nation at any given time. What details are inside those news stories (a.k.a. the specifics) I believe, are kind of dispensable. That is my non-scientific approach to politics and life in general.
This brings me to today’s announcement by the Sarah Palin camp that she will not seek the Republican nomination for President of the United States. I believe that this is horrible news. She was my great female hope. Meaning…she is self-destructive, arrogant, and frankly, didn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of winning in the general election next fall. In other words…my perfect Republican candidate (fingers crossed for my #2 Michelle Bachmann). So anyone wanting to discuss any of the other candidates chances with me please feel free. I might not be able to tell you who will win next November, or why he or she might or might not, but I can tell you my own little personal Vegas line.
Obama v. Perry (Obama +10)
Obama v. Cain (Obama +2)
Obama v. every other GOP candidate (Obama + 100)
* I will try to update this somewhat regularly because as everyone but political scientists say, “anything can happen.”